The rise in consumer price index (CPI) inflation could see the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in an extended pause mode as regards interest rates, and in turn, keep the market rally in check, believe analysts. Signs of inflation cooling off in the US, however, is likely to provide some cushion as the expectations of a change in stance by the US Fed as regards interest rates is likely to aid sentiment. Back home, CPI inflation surged for the first time in five months to 4.81 per cent in June 2023, and was higher than the street's expectations of 4.58 per cent.
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
Among top losers that dragged down key indices were Infosys, TCS, Reliance, SBI, Tata Steel and ITC, falling up to 2.15 per cent.
Since we are at the start of the month and the quarter, we shall look at the broader picture for the markets.
All Sensex components ended in the red. SBI was the top loser, followed by ONGC, Axis Bank, ITC, Titan, Bajaj Auto, TCS and IndusInd Bank.
Large moves in equity and in currency are expected during March settlement.
'The market position from here on is expected to go up'.
Equity benchmarks climbed in early trade on Wednesday amid an overall positive trend in the global markets and ahead of the presentation of Union Budget 2023-24. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 516.97 points to 60,066.87. The broader NSE Nifty climbed 153.15 points to 17,815.30.
Swift gains on Dalal Street this year have also led to a sharp surge in shares of equity market intermediaries like depositories, exchanges, and registrar and transfer Agents (RTAs). The stock prices of BSE, CDSL, CAMS, and KFin Technologies are up 24-283 per cent so far in 2023 when compared to a 9 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty index. With the market buoyancy expected to keep up the pace, analysts believe these stocks are a good long-term bet despite the sharp rally, which can trigger an intermittent correction.
The markets will remain choppy ahead of RBI policy.
After making its entry into the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share index Sensex in May
In a memorable year for the equity market, Dalal Street investors added a whopping Rs 81.90 lakh crore to their wealth in 2023 as a raft of positive factors powered a stellar rally in stocks. Experts said India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals, political stability owing to the BJP's success in recent elections in three significant states, optimistic corporate earnings outlook, signals from the US Federal Reserve about three prospective rate cuts next year and heavy retail investors participation played a major role in fuelling the stock market rally in 2023. In the year 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent.
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Stocks of new-age companies have seen a mixed performance thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). While those of One97 Communications (parent company of Paytm), PB Fintech and Zomato have surged up to 63 per cent year-to-date (YTD), FSN e-commerce, the parent company of Nykaa, however, has dropped 14 per cent YTD. By comparison, Nifty50 and Nifty 500 indices have advanced 7 per cent and 8.7 per cent, respectively, during the period, ACE Equity data show.
2023 could be another volatile year for Indian equity markets, according to BofA. In a report, the brokerage pointed out that the Nifty50, at present, is trading at 20.7x against its long-term average of 18.8x one-year forward earnings of current Nifty constituents. Plus, India is trading at a 98 per cent premium to its emerging market (EM) peers against its long-term average of 45 per cent.
Indian frontline benchmarks - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have rallied around 12 per cent each since June-end and outperformed their global peers by a wide margin. On Thursday, the US Fed hiked interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps) - the third such hike this year - and surprised the markets by projecting further sizable hikes in the coming months. With the latest hike, the Fed fund rate (FFR) now stands in the range of 3 - 3.25 per cent and is highest since January 2008.
Government-owned companies are more generous in rewarding their shareholders with dividends.
'Especially if their investment horizon is over two years.'
Broader markets underperform while weakness persisted in metal and power shares.
Indian equity markets are likely to witness volatility this week due to concerns over rising cases of coronavirus and expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said. Further, progress surrounding the COVID-19 vaccine, related updates, US stimulus talks and global cues would dictate the market trend, traders said. "Going ahead, the market is likely to be volatile as sentiments oscillate between fear of rising COVID cases globally and optimism over vaccine progress. Investors would closely watch out development over the US stimulus talks," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
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Citi, HSBC and UBS etc have already cut their market targets.
Our caste warriors will not even ask these questions, let alone explore better solutions to address the problems of inequality and skewed life outcomes, argues R Jagannathan.
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance emerged as the biggest gainer by climbing 2.95 per cent. Tata Motors, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Maruti, Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel were the other major winners. HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Tech Mahindra and Titan were among the laggards.
Heightened volatility and lacklustre returns continue to make a dent in retail participation in the equities cash market segment. The percentage of retail participation in the average daily turnover in the National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) cash segment has come down to 40.8 per cent in February 2023, from 52 per cent a year ago. At the peak, retail investors accounted for nearly two-thirds of cash market volumes in July 2020.
The initial public offering (IPO) market has seen some momentum of late with robust responses to recent issues. However, only some have been able to ride the wave. So far in 2023, 23 companies have let their approval granted by the markets regulator - the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - lapse.
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
Markets taking cue on future rate cuts from RBI policy.
While Morgan Stanley believes individual stocks are in a bull phase, rate cuts, GDP growth revival are key.
The BSE Midcap and the S&P BSE Smallcap indices outperformed to gain 0.6% and 1.1%, respectively
The Indian equity market is likely to remain under pressure and rangebound over the next few months. This comes as global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve look at a possibility of hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, too, remains data dependent in its endeavour to keep inflation in check and pursue an aggressive monetary policy stance.
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The stock of consumer goods major Emami has corrected nearly 3.5 per cent since its 52-week high of Rs 546.25. On August 29, the stock closed at Rs 521.90 on the BSE. After underperforming the Nifty FMCG index for a long time, the stock is now doing a catch up and surged over 13 per cent in the past one month.
Market breadth turned negative with 1,779 declines over 884 advances on the BSE
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
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Half the stocks in the Nifty 100 index have seen a reduction in their target price by analysts this year due to fears of lacklustre earnings growth and uncertain economic environment. Adani Green Energy, FSN E-Commerce (Nykaa), Adani Ports & SEZ and Indus Towers are among the companies that have seen the maximum cut in TPs during the first three months of calendar 2023, shows Bloomberg data. On the other hand, Canara Bank, JSW Steel and Bank of Baroda have seen the highest increase in TPs.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gave up early gains to close in negative territory on Thursday dragged down by IT and pharma stocks which fell amid fears of recession in the global economy. The 30-share Sensex opened higher and rose further to touch a day's high of 60,676.12 on gains in auto and capital goods shares. However, it gave up all early gains and later closed 412.96 points or 0.68 per cent lower at 59,934.01.
The stock of LTIMindtree finished at Rs 5,001 a piece on Monday, which means it is down about 5 per cent from its all-time high as its June quarter results for the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) missed estimates. A cautious note by the management, coupled with the fact that it will miss its double digit revenue growth target for FY24 weighed on the stock price. The company delivered revenues of just over a billion dollars in the quarter with constant currency growth of 0.1 per cent.
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